Modelling Malaysian road accidents: an intervention analysis approach / Wan Fairos Wan Yaacob ... [et al.]

The introduction of the integrated road safety operations commonly referred to as OPS Sikap on December 2001 was continuously implemented nationwide in Malaysia during every major festive season. The intervention carried out is aimed to reduce the number of road accidents and casualties. Though preliminary analysis based on before and after intervention implementation had concluded that the number of accident has decreased, our objective is to examine the effect in more detail. In this study, intervention analysis was conducted to investigate the effects of OPS Sikap on road accidents in Malaysia. The aim is to assess the intervention effect in comparison with the standard ARIMA model and hence to obtain the best model for forecasting purposes. Our results suggest there is a drop in the number of road accidents during OPS Sikap II, VI, VIII, XII and XIV. However, the significant reduction can only be seen after the implementation of OPS Sikap VIII and XIV with an expected number of reductions by about 1,227 and 1,484 accidents associated with respective intervention. This had suggest the intervention model with ARIMA(l,1,lX0,1,l)12 is the best model to predict the number of road accidents.