Analysis of GDP based on Various GIA method: a case study of Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore / Nur Maisyuhada Mohd Izzudin, Intan Mastura Zubaidi and Nur Fathiah Fatin Mohamad Fauzi

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is considered as the most significant index of economic development. It measures the total value of goods and services produced within a country in a specific period. As the Coronavirus emerged in China starts at 2019 and expanded around the world, many nations implemented a range of measures, including lockdowns, travel restrictions, social distancing, testing, and economic support, to curb the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and minimize its impact on economic activities. The challenge in this study is to identify the most influential factors on GDP when dealing with limited, incomplete, and uncertain data as well as complex patterns and relationships. The aim for this study is to identify the most influence factors on economic growth pre and post COVID-19. This study also analyzes the similarity and closeness of generalized Grey Incidence Analysis (GIA). Annual time series data for the 2011 to 2022 periods, GIA which are absolute, relative, and synthetic model used in this study. The factors on GDP used in this study are exports, imports, gross fixed capital investment, government consumption, consumer spending and inflation rates. All these factors are significant to GDP. The factor that has the highest synthetic degree will be considered as the most influential factor. As the results, the most influential factor during pre-COVID-19 for Malaysia are exports and inflation rates for Thailand and Singapore. However, after the pandemic, exports maintain as the main driving factor in Malaysia, while inflation rates continued to be the primary factor in Thailand, and gross fixed capital investment gained importance in Singapore. Singapore is similar to Malaysia than Thailand after pandemic for similarity and for the closeness, Thailand is closer to Malaysia than Singapore after pandemic. Based on the result, it is suggested to increase the sample size, add more variables and comparisons with other nations or regions, so may lead to improved economic research.