Implementing system dynamics simulation at HCTM for inpatient admissions and beds usage / Nur Amni Misbah and Nur Afiqah Nadhirah Mohd Zaid

Malaysia, a Southeast Asian country with 32.37 million population in 2020 requires better planning in each sector of economic areas especially healthcare as the increasing number of Malaysians imply changes in healthcare services needed in the future. This developing country experiences a worldwide phenomenon which is population ageing as the median age of a country rises and shifts the distribution of that country’s population towards older ages and be the challenges for the government as the priority toward healthcare needs to be increased. Hospital, an institution providing services regarding healthcare is a perfect reference in this case.
Hospital Canselor Tuanku Muhriz UKM (HCTM), one of the busiest hospitals in Wilayah Kuala Lumpur receives thousands of inpatients per year seems to require several action plans to ensure the smooth functioning of the hospital in the future. System Dynamic Simulation (SDS), one of the simulations that are widely used, was discovered in order to predict the total inpatient and the bed usages in 10 years ahead. The year of 2018 setted as initial in this SDS model and the result obtained by running the model.
From the result obtained, approximately 3000 and above inpatients are predicted to increase by following years. As a total of 3777, 4155, 4570 and 5027 inpatients will increase in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 as revealed in the model. Following the model, it disclosed the constant number of beds needed, 873 for 10 years ahead. This means the hospital is ready for the next 10 years with a sufficient number of beds. The discovery of increasingly inpatients will help hospital administration, especially the inpatient division, which is closely related to inpatient admissions to have a brilliant future plan in order to improve its facilities and services aiming to increase patient satisfaction with the hospital’s management of their care.