Analysis of Malaysian natural rubber price through demand and supply / Muhammad Taufiq Abd Jaza and Nur Amalina Ismail

Natural rubber is grown very nearly in Southeast Asia develop as commodities market in Malaysia. Natural rubber market were imbalanced on demand and supply, therefore its impact on natural rubber price. The aim of study is to determine the most affected factor of natural rubber price ofSMR20 in the Malaysia, and to analyse mutual-relation of Malaysian natural rubber price SMR20with domestic supply and demand. Therefore, the natural rubber determination model was built. The data provide in this study is secondary data. Time series data by using the monthly data from year 2016 to 2018. The data provided were gathered from Malaysian Rubber Board, Department of Statistics Malaysia, and Malaysian Rubber Board. It is uses natural rubber price SMR20 as dependent variable, natural rubber production and consumption, crude oil palm price as independent variable. This study test whether there have long-run equilibrium relationship between the price of natural rubber in Malaysia and a set of explanatory variable that influence it. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) reveal that all the series are significant at first difference. The Johansen co-integration test show that the model were co-integrating relationship. The vector error correction model (VECM) were conducted in this test. Findings show that at the long run. Production have positive significance, while consumption and oil palm price have negative significance on price and a one-way casuality from consumption to price in short-term.