Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper prices / Liew Khiin Sen … [et al.]

Liew, Khiin Sen and Shitan, Mahendran and Hussain, Huzaimi (2003) Time series modelling and forecasting of Sarawak black pepper prices / Liew Khiin Sen … [et al.]. Jurnal Akademik. pp. 39-55.

Abstract

Pepper is an important agricultural commodity especially for the state of Sarawak. It is important to forecast its price, as this can help the policy makers in coming up with production and marketing plans to improve the Sarawak’s
economy as well as the farmers’ welfare. In this paper, the time series models are used to forecast the Sarawak black pepper price. It is formally shown in this paper that the pepper price series does not follow a random walk process.
Through a battery of diagnostic tests, this paper further shows that Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) time series models fit the price series well. The ARMA (1,0) model seems to be the best fitting model for predicting
the pepper price based on the data used in this study.

Metadata

Item Type: Article
Creators:
Creators
Email / ID Num.
Liew, Khiin Sen
UNSPECIFIED
Shitan, Mahendran
UNSPECIFIED
Hussain, Huzaimi
UNSPECIFIED
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > Agriculture > Agricultural economics
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > Agricultural industries
Divisions: Universiti Teknologi MARA, Sarawak
Journal or Publication Title: Jurnal Akademik
UiTM Journal Collections: Others > Jurnal Akademik UiTM Sarawak
Page Range: pp. 39-55
Keywords: black pepper, Sarawak , production, marketing, economy
Date: June 2003
URI: https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/44863
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