Determination of loss-of-load probability (LOLP) by considering the effective forced outage rate (EFOR) of wind power plants

Wind energy plays an important role in the growth of installed power generation. Due to an increase of power demand and limited power generator in most countries, wind power plants can be used as an alternative for future electric supply. However the variations of power generation due to wind uncertainty do not typically recognize. Most of the wind generator models provide an accurate representation of output power, but do not incorporate any probabilistic assessment of whether the given level of wind power will vary from its expected value due to the uncertainty of wind velocity. This is important to find more accurately the optimum power supplied by the wind power plants. This paper presents the sliding window technique (SWT) that used to determine the effective forced outage rate (EFOR) of wind power plants. Then, the EFOR is used in the determination of loss-of-load probability (LOLP) in order to measure the reliability of wind power system generation. The determination of LOLP considering the wind power generation is verified on a modified 24 Bus IEEE reliability test system.