Technical report: prediction for progression of river blindness by using SIR model / Siti Khadijah Hamiri and Donna Ak Langgar

River blindness disease become a major problem in Northern Nigeria, Africa especially in a rural agricultural located nearby river's edge. The population is at higher risk infected for very close to the breeding site of black fly or known as Simulium damnosum. The infected black fly caused the transmission of parasite to human body. This study focused on solving the River Blindness disease using SIR model with vital dynamic. Solving the ordinary differential equation (ODE) by using steady state theorem to identify the change percentage of susceptible, infected and recovery for the population in Northern Nigeria, Africa in a time period. The initial percentage of susceptible is 0.65 of the population, but only 0.01 of the susceptible individuals are infected to the disease and O of them are recovered. The progression of the disease after 90 days is predicted using Euler Method in Matlab.