Technical report: application of differential transformation method to the SIR math model of the spread of dengue fever / Muhammad Al-Azim Mazlan, Mohd Ramdan Harun and Muhammad Faeez Mohd Noor

Dengue fever is one of the critical diseases in Malaysia. It has turned into a primary issue for authorities everywhere throughout the world including our nation, Malaysia. Millions cases of dengue infection is reported worldwide each year. Usually, the infection occurs in tropical and subtropical areas. Dengue fever with extreme form is called hemorrhagic fever, which may lead to severe bleeding, a sudden drop in blood pressure and the worst is death. As a contextual analysis, the information utilized is the reported dengue fever cases from year 2011 until 2016 in Kota Bharu, Kelantan. According to the data dengue fever cases collected, it showed dengue fever cases was increase drastically from 2011 until 2014 with the highest is in 2014 by 10955 cases. However, dengue fever cases in year 2015 and 2016 were reported greatly decreased. In this report, we study on the SIR model for the spread of dengue fever. This report paper is aim to estimate the recovery rate (α), transmission rate (β) using Euler's method and applying Differential Transformation Method (DTM) to the SIR model in dengue fever. It is observed that when number of infected increase rapidly, the number of susceptible also decrease rapidly. The value of β is calculated and we found that the higher value of β the number of dengue fever cases reported is lower and vice verse.