Technical report: mathematical modeling for HIV and AIDS spread in Malaysia / Aina Sorfina Yurika Ismadi and Puteri Nurfatin Shazreen Mohamad Zahir

The spread of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has become one of the major concerns in some parts of the world. This virus also has the possibility to develop into acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) which is the advance stage of HIV. To understand the spread and behavior of this disease, mathematical models are commonly developed and applied for better understanding; In this current case study, by using the list of parameters used, basic equations are developed and derived to estimate number of individuals infected with HIV who develop into AIDS and number of individuals who do not advance into the AIDS stage. The results of the estimated number of individuals for both groups are compared with the annual data set in Malaysia to ensure the estimated values compliments the real data. Also by using the derived formula, the value of critical threshold parameter Ro is calculated and analyzed to assess the stability of the disease in Malaysia. If Ro <l, the disease dies out; and if Ro >1, the disease free-equilibrium is unstable. As the value of Ro calculated is unconditionally greater than unity 1, it shows a major concern on Malaysian's public health because the aim was to stabilize the epidemic spreading at disease-free equilibrium point. It can be concluded that HIV disease in Malaysia shows epidemic behavior, especially in understanding and forecasting emerging cases of HIV and AIDS.