Predictive model of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) motorcycle crash severity affected by road factors in Malaysia using multiple logistic regression method / Syahmi Razi Razali

This study explores into the critical domain of road characteristics influencing crashes involving motorcycles and Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs). A comprehensive analysis of eight key road characteristics related to HGV-motorcycle crashes is presented. The primary objective is to examine the severity of motorcycle crashes in relation to HGV crashes and to identify and clarify the significant road factors that contribute to these fatalities. The study acts as a preliminary investigation with the goal of laying the groundwork for later research projects that would improve the state of Malaysian roads. The methodology employed involves a meticulous analysis of road crash data spanning three years (2015-2017). The significant factors affecting crash severity were identified using descriptive and simple logistic regression analysis. More than 60% of the cases resulted in fatalities, which highlights a bleak information. The identified key road factors include straight roads, paved shoulders, flat surfaces, smooth road surfaces, bitumen road surfaces, dry conditions, and single lanes. Using multiple logistic regression, a prediction model for the severity of crashes involving HGVs and motorcyclists was developed, and the model fit the data with a fair degree of accuracy. The final model highlights that most severe crashes manifest in one-way lanes, sloped conditions, paved roads, and bends. This subtle insight into the details of road characteristics provides a foundation for local authorities to enhance road safety measures. The study helps in filling a significant research gap on the significance of road characteristics to HGV crashes. With a thorough and in-depth analysis of the road factors related to HGV-motorcycle crashes, this study contributes significant additional insights to a body of literature. The study goes beyond simple recognition by providing practical insights for managing and planning road safety in the Malaysian environment. Through its multifaceted approach, the research not only enhances our understanding of the dynamics of HGV crashes but also provides practical recommendations to improve road safety outcomes in the Malaysian context.