A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid

Mohd Idris, Nur Aziean and Mohtar, Siti Khadijah and Md Ali, Zaileha and Abdul Hamid, Khadijah (2022) A dynamic SIR model for the spread of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Malaysia / Nur Aziean Mohd Idris, Siti Khadijah Mohtar, Zaileha Md Ali, and Khadijah Abdul Hamid. Malaysian Journal of Computing (MJoC), 7 (2): 4. pp. 1108-1119. ISSN 2600-8238

Official URL: https://mjoc.uitm.edu.my

Abstract

The emergence of the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case in Malaysia has increased the number of infected cases. Hence, this study proposes a Susceptible-Infected-Recovery (SIR) epidemiological model of the COVID-19 epidemic to portray the outbreak's situation. The SIR model is numerically solved using the Fourth-order Runge-Kutta (RK4) method in Matlab®. The Euler method verifies that the graphical results of the SIR model are reliable and valid. In addition, this study analyses the stability of disease-free and endemic equilibriums of the SIR model by the Jacobian matrix. The results show the outbreak for phase 1 occurs in the first 100 days of the phase due to the increased infected cases in early March 2020. As for phase 2, the increases of infected cases in wave 2 make the outbreak occur throughout phase 2, with R0 being higher than phase 1. The infected population for phase 3 shows asymptotic behavior even though the infection rate increases, but the recovery rate is much higher than in phase 2. The local stability of the endemic equilibrium of all phases exists since the value of R0 is more than one. The system is locally asymptotic stable for all three phases since the obtained eigenvalues are real and negative.

Metadata

Item Type: Article
Creators:
Creators
Email / ID Num.
Mohd Idris, Nur Aziean
nuraziean@tmsk.uitm.edu.my
Mohtar, Siti Khadijah
UNSPECIFIED
Md Ali, Zaileha
UNSPECIFIED
Abdul Hamid, Khadijah
UNSPECIFIED
Divisions: Universiti Teknologi MARA, Shah Alam > Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences
Journal or Publication Title: Malaysian Journal of Computing (MJoC)
UiTM Journal Collections: UiTM Journal > Malaysian Journal of Computing (MJoC)
ISSN: 2600-8238
Volume: 7
Number: 2
Page Range: pp. 1108-1119
Date: October 2022
URI: https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/69244
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