The predictability of Malaysia crude oil production using Box-jenkins autoregressive integrated average (ARIMA) model / Zamzulani Mohamed, Nazuha Muda @ Yusof and Ruzaidah Sulong @ A. Rashid.

Mohamed, Zamzulani and Muda @ Yusof, Nazuha and Sulong @ A. Rashid, Ruzaidah (2010) The predictability of Malaysia crude oil production using Box-jenkins autoregressive integrated average (ARIMA) model / Zamzulani Mohamed, Nazuha Muda @ Yusof and Ruzaidah Sulong @ A. Rashid. [Research Reports] (Unpublished)

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Abstract

This study examines the Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) in forecasting crude oil production. Monthly Malaysia crude oil production data for the period of January 2005 to May 2010 were analyzed using time-series method that consists of model identification, model estimation and diagnostic checking. Autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions were calculated to examine the stationarity of the data. Then, an appropriate Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using Ljung-Box statistic technique. The forecasts are derived from the best ARIMA model to predict future Malaysia Crude Oil Production for the period of June 2010 to August 2010. Our 'result on the prediction showed that the trend of Malaysian Crude Oil Production will exhibit to increase with light fluctuation for three leading months.

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Item Type: Research Reports
Creators:
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Mohamed, Zamzulani
UNSPECIFIED
Muda @ Yusof, Nazuha
UNSPECIFIED
Sulong @ A. Rashid, Ruzaidah
UNSPECIFIED
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > Mathematical statistics. Probabilities > Prediction analysis
Q Science > QA Mathematics > Analytic mechanics
Divisions: Universiti Teknologi MARA, Terengganu > Dungun Campus > Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences
Item ID: 49088
Uncontrolled Keywords: Malaysia crude oil production, ARIMA, Box-jenkins
URI: https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/49088

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