Application of box Jenkin’s and single exponential smoothing in forecasting of export cocoa production / Nor Anith Dayana Sakri, Wan Nor Shilawati Wan Mamat and Nurul Ashhadah Amirah Roslan

Sakri, Nor Anith Dayana and Wan Mamat, Wan Nor Shilawati and Roslan, Nurul Ashhadah Amirah (2019) Application of box Jenkin’s and single exponential smoothing in forecasting of export cocoa production / Nor Anith Dayana Sakri, Wan Nor Shilawati Wan Mamat and Nurul Ashhadah Amirah Roslan. [Student Project] (Unpublished)

Abstract

Cocoa has an important role in the export sector for production plantation in Malaysia. The cocoa production can maintain their strategic management by making the forecast for export of cocoa production within a certain period. It is compulsory to study the pattern of export cocoa production in the future. This report reviews the export of cocoa production in Malaysia over 3 7 years starting from the year 1980 to the year 2016. Secondary time series data were used which obtained from the Division of Statistic Malaysia. There are two models that have been used in the study, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Single Exponential Smoothing Model. This model is comparable to Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) to get the best model. Akaike' Information Criteria (AIC), Schwarz Criteria (BIC), Durbin Watson, Adjusted R-squared and R-squared are taken in diagnostic test statistics for the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Single Exponential Smoothing model were tested by using Microsoft Excel and the criteria of Mean Squared Error (MSE) emphasize the lowest value that will be chosen as the best model. Based on the results, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was selected as the appropriate model for forecasting the export of cocoa production.

Metadata

Item Type: Student Project
Creators:
CreatorsEmail / ID. Num
Sakri, Nor Anith DayanaUNSPECIFIED
Wan Mamat, Wan Nor ShilawatiUNSPECIFIED
Roslan, Nurul Ashhadah AmirahUNSPECIFIED
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > Mathematical statistics. Probabilities
Q Science > QA Mathematics > Analysis > Analytical methods used in the solution of physical problems
Divisions: Universiti Teknologi MARA, Negeri Sembilan > Seremban Campus > Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences
Programme: Bachelor of Science (Hons.) (Management Mathematics)
Item ID: 37420
Uncontrolled Keywords: box Jenkin’s, single exponential smoothing, forecasting, export cocoa production
URI: http://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/37420

Download

[img] Text
37420.pdf

Download (313kB)

Fulltext

Fulltext is available at:
  • Koleksi Akses Terhad | PTAR KampusSeremban
  • ID Number

    37420

    Others


    View in Google Scholar

    Actions (login required)

    View Item View Item

    Downloads

    Downloads per month over past year