Optimization of gold investment returns in Pegadaian Indonesia using ARIMA model and investor risk profiles

This study classifies gold investors at Pegadaian based on their risk profiles: conservative, moderate, and aggressive. Conservative investors prioritise capital safety by choosing fully paid gold savings to avoid debt risks and price fluctuations. Moderate investors combine cash purchases with short-term installments (6–12 months) to potentially gain when gold price increases exceed installment costs. Aggressive investors use leverage to expand assets, thus increasing both profit and loss potential. In addition to these types, there are also Sharia-compliant investors who prefer instruments free from riba, gharar, and maysir, such as cashbased gold purchases. Gold price prediction for Antam and gold savings is conducted using the ARIMA model based on daily data from sahabat.pegadaian.co.id, analysed with Minitab and Python. Results indicate that the ARIMA model can predict price movements. After obtaining the predictions, margin comparisons are made by calculating the difference between buying and selling prices of Antam gold and gold savings. These margin differences assist in classifying investor characteristics by highlighting their risk levels and capital utilisation preferences.