Dynamics of the Malaysian automotive transition: a competitive Lotka-Volterra analysis of electric vehicle (EV) adoption

The Malaysian automotive market is undergoing a critical transition from Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) to Electric Vehicles (EVs). Despite increasing policy support and expanding charging infrastructure, EV adoption remains relatively low, prompting inquiries into whether EVs will ultimately supplant ICEVs or establish a long-term coexistence. Understanding these competitive dynamics is vital for assessing Malaysia’s progress toward sustainable transportation. This study introduces a two-species Lotka–Volterra competition model to quantify the market interplay between ICEV and EV sales, capturing intrinsic growth rates, self-limitation constraints, and inter-technology competition. Model parameters are estimated using Malaysian automotive sales data (2019–2024) via nonlinear least squares optimization with MATLAB’s fminsearch algorithm. The system's dynamics are evaluated through equilibrium and eigenvalue stability analyses, corroborated by numerical simulations and phase portraits. The findings indicate that, under current conditions, system trajectories gravitate toward an ICEV-dominant equilibrium despite the rising adoption of EVs. This underscores that ICEVs currently maintain structural dominance within the Malaysian automotive landscape. Ultimately, this research highlights the efficacy of dynamical systems modelling in deciphering technological competition and market transitions