Investigation on the spread of dengue in Malaysia by using SEIR Model

Dengue fever remains a major public health concern in Malaysia, driven by Aedes mosquitoes, climate change, urbanization, and population movement. This study uses the SEIR (Susceptible– Exposed–Infected–Recovered) model to understand dengue transmission, calculate the basic reproduction number (R₀), and analyze the stability of equilibrium points. Simulations over one, three, and six years reveal both short- and long-term transmission dynamics. Eigenvalue analysis shows that the disease-free equilibrium is unstable, indicating continued disease spread without effective intervention. Although the model includes births and deaths, it lacks key real-world factors such as vaccination, reinfection from waning immunity, and dengue-related deaths. The study highlights the urgent need for public health measures and suggests that incorporating these additional factors would enhance the model’s predictive accuracy and usefulness for disease control strategies.