Analyzing influenza a spread using the SEIR epidemiological model

Influenza A remains a significant public health issue globally, with seasonal outbreaks causing widespread morbidity and mortality. In Malaysia, influenza A transmission patterns are influenced by various factors, including population density, urbanization, and climate. This study uses the SEIR (Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered) model to analyze the spread of Influenza A, calculate the basic reproduction number (R₀), and assess the stability of disease equilibrium points. Simulations over one, two, and three years reveal the disease’s transmission dynamics, with eigenvalue analysis indicating that the disease-free equilibrium remains unstable, suggesting potential for continued spread without intervention. Although the model considers births and deaths, it does not account for vaccination, reinfection due to waning immunity, or mortality, which limits the model’s real-world applicability. The study emphasizes the need for effective public health interventions and highlights areas for future research to improve model predictions.