Analysing the transmission of tuberculosis in Malaysia using SIR model

Tuberculosis (TB) is a substantial infectious disease in Malaysia, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. The lack of awareness regarding the signs and symptoms of TB is one of the causes of the late diagnosis of TB in the population. In Malaysia, the level of awareness about TB is still low. The purpose of the study is to analyses the dynamics of TB transmission using SIR Model and analyze the pattern of TB cases in Malaysia. Ministry of Health Malaysia data on TB cases and fatalities from 2003 to 2021, with a focus on the states of Selangor and Sabah, were collected. The results demonstrated that the number of susceptible individuals in Malaysia decreased swiftly, reaching a threshold of 10,000 in 160 days. The peak infection period lasted between 90 and 120 days, then gradually decreased. Throughout 2021, there was a constant increase in the number of recovered individuals. In Selangor and Sabah, similar patterns were observed. These results emphasize the significance of prompt interventions to reduce the number of susceptible individuals and control the spread of tuberculosis. Future research should be considered to include an exposed (E) group in the model, knowing the SEIR model. Overall, this study contributes to a better comprehension of the dynamics of TB in Malaysia.