The price of Research Octane Number 97 (RON97) in Malaysia: a univariate time series approach

Modelling RON97 fuel prices can be challenging as it sometimes can be particularly difficult to select a suitable method to achieve accurate predictions. Different countries exhibit varying patterns of petrol (gasoline) usage, adding complexity to the forecasting process. The study emphasized the importance of selecting models that balance accuracy with simplicity while addressing data characteristics like trends. This research explored the effectiveness of various time series methods in predicting RON97 fuel prices by using Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) and Holt’s Method. This paper tried to identify the most accurate and practical model for forecasting. Data that was being used was monthly data of RON97 price from January 2020 until January 2024. The error measurements which were Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) showed that the lowest value in deciding the best method within the two methods was Holt’s method. Thus, with an MSE value of 0.0002977 and MAPE value of 0.1653 which was the smallest value. The result is significant for government of Malaysia and also to all Malaysian for energy security.