SARIMA-intervention analysis: the impact of SARS and COVID-19 outbreak on export in Malaysia

International trade is important for a country which enables it to export excess goods and import goods which are in shortage. Meanwhile, exports are the main components that generate income for a country. However, there are some disturbances that influence exports, such as financial crises, disease outbreaks, wars, and others. Malaysia, with a high degree of economic openness, also receives the impact of these disturbances. The objective of this paper is to study the impact of the SARS and COVID-19 outbreaks on the exports of Malaysia. The monthly time series data from January 2000 to December 2024 are adopted from Bank Negara Malaysia. In this study, a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) intervention model is applied. The results show that SARS has an insignificant negative impact, while the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant positive impact on the exports of Malaysia. Therefore, exports in Malaysia still remain strong even during public health crises. The COVID-19 pandemic, despite its disruptions, has created an opportunity for Malaysia’s export sector to accelerate growth and play a pivotal role in revitalizing the national economy.