Fuzzy time series and artificial neural network: forecasting exportation of natural rubber in Malaysia / Siti Nor Nadrah Muhamad …[et al.]

Muhamad, Siti Nor Nadrah and Sofean, Shafeina Hatieqa and Moktar, Balkiah and Wan Shahidan, Wan Nurshazelin (2021) Fuzzy time series and artificial neural network: forecasting exportation of natural rubber in Malaysia / Siti Nor Nadrah Muhamad …[et al.]. Journal of Computing Research and Innovation (JCRINN), 6 (1). pp. 22-30. ISSN 2600-8793 (eISSN)

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Abstract

Natural rubber is one of the most important crops in Malaysia alongside palm oil, cocoa, paddy, and pineapple. Being a tropical country, Malaysia is one of the top five exporters and producers of rubber in the world. The purpose of this study is to find the forecasted value of the actual data of the number of exportations of natural rubber by using Fuzzy Time Series and Artificial Neural Network. This study is also conducted to determine the best model by making comparison between Fuzzy Time Series and Artificial Neural Network. Fuzzy Time Series has allowed to overcome a downside where the classical time series method cannot deal with forecasting problem in which values of time series are linguistic terms represented by fuzzy sets. Artificial Neural Network was introduced as one of the systematic tools of modelling which has been forecasting for about 20 years ago. The error measure that was used in this study to make comparisons were Mean Square Error, Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. The results of this study showed that the fuzzy time series method has the smallest error value compared to artificial neural network which means it was more accurate compared to artificial neural network in forecasting exportation of natural rubber in Malaysia.

Metadata

Item Type: Article
Creators:
Creators
Email
Muhamad, Siti Nor Nadrah
nadrahmuhamad@uitm.edu.my
Sofean, Shafeina Hatieqa
UNSPECIFIED
Moktar, Balkiah
UNSPECIFIED
Wan Shahidan, Wan Nurshazelin
UNSPECIFIED
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > Fuzzy arithmetic
Q Science > QA Mathematics > Fuzzy logic
Divisions: Universiti Teknologi MARA, Perlis > Arau Campus > Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences
Journal or Publication Title: Journal of Computing Research and Innovation (JCRINN)
UiTM Journal Collections: UiTM Journal > Journal of Computing Research and Innovation (JCRINN)
ISSN: 2600-8793 (eISSN)
Volume: 6
Number: 1
Page Range: pp. 22-30
Official URL: https://doi.org/10.24191/jcrinn.v6i1.170
Item ID: 47083
Uncontrolled Keywords: fuzzy time series, artificial neural network, forecasting
URI: https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/47083

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47083

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