A study on trend and modeling the export demand of canned pineapple in Malaysia by comparing between univariate modelling and box-jenkins methodology at Malaysian Pineapple Industry Board (MPIB) / Sunizan Jamhari

Jamhari, Sunizan (2013) A study on trend and modeling the export demand of canned pineapple in Malaysia by comparing between univariate modelling and box-jenkins methodology at Malaysian Pineapple Industry Board (MPIB) / Sunizan Jamhari. Industrial Training. Universiti Teknologi MARA Cawangan Kelantan, Kota Bharu. (Unpublished)

Download

[thumbnail of 33601.pdf] Text
33601.pdf

Download (394kB)

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine a suitable method comparing between Univariate Modelling Technique and Box-Jenkins Methodology to forecast the export demand of canned pineapple from Malaysian Pineapple Industry Board (MPIB) using monthly data from January 2005 to October 2012. There are six models in Univariate Modelling Technique include Naïve with Trend, Single Exponential Smoothing, Double Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Method, Adaptive Response Rate Exponential Smoothing Model (ARRES) and Holt’s Winter Model. While for the Box-Jenkins methodology, there are four models which are SARIMA(4,1,1)(1,1,1)12, SARIMA(3,1,0)(1,1,1)12, SARIMA(2,1,1)(1,1,1)12, SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,1)12. By comparing the value of Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Holt’s Winter give the best model for Univariate Modelling Technique while SARIMA(3,1,0)(1,1,1)12 give the best model for Box-Jenkins Methodology. By comparing the both best model, SARIMA(3,1,0)(1,1,1)12 give the best model. In addition it is shown that SARIMA(3,1,0)(1,1,1)12 fits the data well and they have correctly predicted the future trend of export canned pineapple within the sample period of study

Metadata

Item Type: Monograph (Industrial Training)
Creators:
Creators
Email
Jamhari, Sunizan
2009339829
Contributors:
Contribution
Name
Email / ID Num.
Thesis advisor
Ab Aziz, Nasuhar
UNSPECIFIED
Subjects: S Agriculture > SB Plant culture
S Agriculture > SB Plant culture > Pineapple
S Agriculture > SB Plant culture > Pineapple > Malaysia
Divisions: Universiti Teknologi MARA, Kelantan > Kota Bharu Campus > Faculty of Computer and Mathematical Sciences
Item ID: 33601
Uncontrolled Keywords: Univariate Modelling Technique, Box-Jenkins Methodology, Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE)
URI: https://ir.uitm.edu.my/id/eprint/33601

ID Number

33601

Indexing


View in Google Scholar

Edit Item
Edit Item